Canadian authorities and migrant aid organizations are preparing for a potential surge of asylum seekers crossing the border from the United States, as concerns rise over immigration policies following Donald Trump’s re-election. The Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) have been actively mobilizing resources, while communities across Canada brace for a new wave of border crossings by those seeking refuge from anticipated large-scale deportations and strict immigration enforcement in the U.S.
This shift comes in response to President-elect Trump’s announced plans to implement the largest deportation campaign in American history. Canadian officials, especially those stationed at critical border points, fear that this new phase of immigration policy could drive a significant number of people to enter Canada and other neighboring North American countries. Many migrants who feel at risk of deportation and detention in the U.S. see Canada as a safer destination, given its reputation for more compassionate immigration policies.
RCMP Sergeant Charles Poirier stated that the organization has been making preparations for months in anticipation of this potential increase in asylum seekers. “We knew a few months ago that we had to start prepping a contingency plan,” Poirier said, citing the possibility of increased illegal and irregular migration into Quebec and Canada. The worst-case scenario, according to Poirier, could involve a surge of border crossings so significant that RCMP officers might struggle to keep up with the demand. “If we start seeing 100 people crossing per day, it will stretch our resources thin, as our officers would need to cover long distances to respond effectively,” he noted.
This scenario is not without precedent. During Trump’s first term, in 2017, thousands of asylum seekers crossed into Canada outside official checkpoints, particularly at Roxham Road near the Quebec-New York border. However, following a recent bilateral agreement between Canada and the U.S., Roxham Road is no longer an option. The new agreement mandates that the entire 4,000-mile border now serves as a regulated checkpoint, where asylum seekers attempting to cross outside formal points will be turned back unless they qualify for specific exemptions. This restriction complicates options for migrants, forcing those attempting to enter Canada illegally to avoid authorities and remain hidden for at least two weeks before seeking asylum—an approach that poses significant risks.
The impact of these policies has raised concerns among immigration advocacy groups, who argue that the lack of safe and legal pathways leaves many with no option but to take desperate measures. Abdulla Daoud, director of The Refugee Centre in Montreal, emphasized the dangers of restrictive border policies: “When legitimate pathways are either unavailable or require people to do the impossible, individuals will inevitably try to achieve safety by any means necessary,” he explained, underscoring the humanitarian concerns surrounding these policies.
Meanwhile, Canadian police forces are on heightened alert, prepared to deploy hundreds of additional officers, increase patrols, set up temporary facilities near the border, and organize transportation for processing any large-scale arrivals. Poirier emphasized the gravity of the situation, stating, “All eyes are on the border right now. We went on high alert days before the election, and this status will likely continue for the foreseeable future.”
Canada’s asylum system, already grappling with record numbers of refugee claims, faces immense strain from this new influx. The government is caught between its commitment to secure borders and its reputation as a welcoming destination for those fleeing violence and oppression. At the same time, other North American countries, including Mexico, are seeing similar increases in migrant flows as individuals seek alternative options to the U.S.
Humanitarian advocates and migration experts are calling for a comprehensive, coordinated North American response that addresses both the immediate needs of asylum seekers and the broader challenges that drive migration. Experts warn that, without policy reforms and regional cooperation, this influx could continue, placing substantial strain on Canada’s resources and border infrastructure.
